杭州承办世预赛票房破5000万,据估创10亿级别的综合经济效益(世预赛落户杭州票房超5000万,综合经济效益预计达十亿级)

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Breaking down economic impact

I'm considering the ticket revenue of 50M RMB and its 10B RMB economic impact. I should illustrate how these multipliers work, like direct revenues from ticketing, accommodation, food and beverage, transport, as well as indirect and induced effects.

I should note risks of overestimating while discussing opportunities for the city, such as urban branding and sports industry growth. I need to clarify the statement about 1B-level effects, as it seems more realistic than the initial 10B estimate. A rough model might show 20x ratios as plausible.Creating a quantitative check

I'm working on a numerical analysis for potential attendance. If there are 2-3 matches with 40-50k attendees and 30-50% out-of-town visitors, with per capita spending of 1500-3000 RMB over a night or two, then I'm looking at around 66M RMB per match, potentially totaling 130M RMB for two matches.

I need to include hospitality and media operations spending, perhaps totaling 50-100M RMB. After applying multipliers and considering risks like double-counting and leakage, I can suggest ways to maximize benefits, such as fan zones and improved traffic management.Offering a calculation tool

I’m thinking about creating a quick spreadsheet calculator or a Python notebook to run some scenarios. As a coding agent, I want to ask the user if they’d like a calculator and what assumptions they want to include. I should be concise and helpful, so I’ll present my thoughts in bullet points.

![tline](/assets/images/BF538378.jpg)

I’ll summarize key points, provide rough calculations, outline methods and data needed for verification, note risks, and suggest actionable steps. Plus, I can offer to build a simple model or sheet if they’re interested!

看点与结论

  • 票房破5000万只是直接收入的一部分;“10亿级别综合经济效益”在大赛体量下是有可能的,但依赖关键假设(外地客占比、停留时长、客单价、媒体曝光估值、乘数系数等)。
  • 粗算路径能跑到约10亿:两三场高关注度比赛+较高外地客流+旺季价位+城市配套活动,可以把直接+间接/诱发效应叠加到十亿上下。

一个“算给你看”的粗算

  • 观赛规模:4.5万座×2场≈9万人次(含复购/黄牛不重复计)。
  • 外地客:35%×9万≈3.15万人;人均停留1.6晚;人均花费≈1800元(房/餐/交通/文旅)→约5.7亿元。
  • 本地观众消费溢出:5.85万人×300元夜间/周边消费→约1.75亿元。
  • 赛事相关B端支出:转播/制作、场馆运营、安保、临建、赞助接待、志愿者与物流等→0.6–1.0亿元(城市间差异大)。
  • 小计直接支出:约8.0–8.5亿元(含票房5000万)。
  • 乘数效应:本地I-O乘数1.2–1.5较稳健→综合约9.6–12.7亿元。
  • 媒体/品牌曝光:若纳入“等值广告价值”会进一步上浮,但这部分常被质疑,建议与现金流效应分开呈现。
  • ![出585万](/assets/images/36EE38C7.jpg)

怎么更严谨地验证

  • 口径拆分:直接效应(票、食宿行购、B端)、间接(本地供应链)、诱发(收入带动再消费)。
  • 反事实对比:用手机信令/OTA/酒店PMS数据对比非赛事周末的客流、入住、房价、停留时长的增量。
  • 本地化参数:用浙江或杭州市投入产出表/旅游卫星账户的分部门乘数,避免套用全国均值。
  • 漏损核减:平台抽佣、跨城供应商、替代效应(本地居民把原本消费换到赛事,不算增量)、拥堵挤出。
  • 数据清单:实名观赛去重人数、外地占比与来源地、平均停留/同行人数、酒店入住与均价、机场/高铁到发量、场外活动参与人数、商圈POS增量、场馆与转播成本明细。

常见风险与争议

  • 双重计量:票房与平台服务费、赞助实物置换重复统计。
  • 过度外推:把旺点商圈增量直接放大到全市。
  • 曝光价值等值与现金效益混淆。
  • 忽视替代与挤出,导致增量被高估10–30%。

如何进一步放大效益(下一场可用)

  • 设计“过夜转化”权益:联票+地标夜游/博物馆延时开放,拉长停留。
  • 扶持场外官方同城活动(Fan Zone、夜市),引导消费集聚与可计量。
  • 与航司/高铁/OTA做赛事主题包,扩大外地客占比。
  • 引导媒体与短视频打卡路线,延长赛事热度到赛后周末。
  • 场馆周边临停/步行友好与分时疏导,减少拥堵挤出。

要不要我帮你做个可调参数的小模型?我可以用一份简易Excel或Python脚本,把人数、占比、客单、乘数等做成滑杆,代入你的实测数据就能实时看到综合效益区间。